Over a year ago, I wrote a post about the process of opinion-changing. At the time, I intended to follow up with a series of posts about specific things I had changed my opinion on for various reasons. I never ended up writing any of them, mostly out of laziness. Well, now I’m writing about one.
Supporters of the idea of global warming don’t seem to care about the evidence; to them, any and all climate changes are evidence of global warming, even if that evidence is global cooling.
I still think a lot of people do talk about AGW without sufficiently explaining why cooling periods and why they either support or are irrelevant to AGW (depending on which cooling period you’re talking about). However, I was too closed-minded about it, dismissing it out of hand without sufficient research.
In the second post, I wrote this:
Now, I won’t claim the climate isn’t changing. That much is obvious. But I have yet to see anyone show that we’re causing it. What’s more, I have yet to see anyone show that the climate would stop changing if we (magically) completely eliminated pollution tomorrow – and there’s certainly practically no evidence that we can actually reverse it.
As I’ll get into shortly, it’s pretty obvious to me now that the global temperature changes we’ve seen in the last 40 years are our fault. (I’m less convinced that we can reverse the damage we’ve caused, but we can at least slow down the rate of the damage.)
In the third post, I said all kinds of things. I sourced some of them, and I don’t remember where others came from. Quoting something from that post would probably seem self-serving no matter which paragraph I choose, so you can just go read it and see all of what I said at the time. Suffice it to say, the CRU’s former director Phil Jones made some statements that seemed to me, at the time, to contradict the CRU’s public stance on the subject.
I don’t want to waste time going over the various articles I’ve read in the intervening years by various scientifically-minded people I respect. I will say that I’ve learned a lot over the last nearly 7 years, and rather than summarize it I’ll let this recent xkcd say it for me (compare the rate of change over the last 20,000 years to the rate of change in the last 100):